Odds of 2025 US Solana ETF listing top 77%: VanEck research head
The odds of a Solana SOL
$206.00 exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are even higher than a popular betting market’s optimistic forecast, according to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research.
On Jan. 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket said the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 are around 77%. In a post on the X platform, Sigel described Polymarket’s forecast as “underpriced.”
Sigel’s optimism mirrors industrywide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Pro-crypto Trump said he wants to make America “the world’s crypto capital.”
Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds increased to approximately 84% as of Jan. 2, according to its website.
Related: Betting markets predict bullish 2025 for crypto
Favorable listing prospects
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs.
In August, the US Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly challenged the asset managers’ plans, citing concerns SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.
Bitcoin BTC$96,938 and Ether ETH$3,436.80 ETFs — the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges — use an atypical “grantor trust” structure typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Issuers say success may hinge on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to a similar structure.
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US.
In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now “overwhelmingly high.”
